#Thrill5 Week 1

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Hello hello and welcome to the inaugural #Thrill5 column. Every Sunday this NFL season I’ll be giving you 5 free winners winners winners out of the kindness of my heart because that’s just the type of guy I am.
The #Thrill5 picks are derived from an advanced sabermetric model, the intricacies of which I’ll divulge to the readers in this here column over the course of the NFL season.

Bills/Jets over 41.0 -110
The first thing you do every week is search the board for the lowest point total and the highest point total. The Ravens/Dolphins currently trail th8e Bills/Jets by a point at 40.0 but I like this matchup better. Josh Allen and Sam Darnold are both headed into their sophomore seasons poised to have big breakouts and the Jets made the biggest free agent acquisition of the offseason with running back Le’Veon Bell. If my good will is properly placed, these teams shouldn’t have trouble crossing 41 points.

Chiefs -3.5 -110
This one is simple. The Kansas City Chiefs are a good football team and the Jacksonville Jaguars are a bad football team. Yeah, I know the Jaguars have an elite defense that’s only gotten better with the addition of Josh Allen (not that Josh Allen), but the Chiefs have the best offense in the league and I believe that they won more games last season. Patrick Mahomes had one of his worst games of the season against the Jaguars last year with two interceptions and passing for no touchdowns but they still won 30-14. Gimme the Chiefs.

Rams -2.0 -110
This one is a little bit trickier. The Panthers usually seem to have a decent squad but some seasons they overperform and some seasons they underperform and you never know which team you’re going to get. The Rams however are a very strong team with consistent cores on both sides of the ball and an elite coaching staff. I’m not putting it past the Panthers to take this one at home but the Rams are clearly a better team that deserves more respect than two points.

Lions/Cardinals under 46.0 -110
This is probably the worst match-up of the day. These teams aren’t good. Last season they ranked #25 and #32 in points scored. With the additions of offensive mastermind Kliff Kingsbury at head coach and Kyler Murray at quarterback, I expect the Cardinals to score more points this season but they still have lots of holes before they’re ready to compete. Under is the safe bet here.

49er’s ML (EVEN)
I’ll be real with you I don’t have a good explanation for this one but after all the good explanations for the picks above I think I’ve earned some good will. These teams aren’t great either but I feel like the Buccaneers are a worse team than the 49er’s and now that they have Jimmy Guwop back they have an extra swagger. Bet the house on ‘Niners baby.


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