Hello and welcome back to the week 4 #Thrill5 column. In the inaugural column I promised to give you 5 winners every Sunday and in week 3 I did exactly that. We went a perfect 5-0, bringing the season record to 10-5, and I promise to give you 5 more winners this week.
Last week we got weird with it and it worked. This week, we’re gonna pump the breaks and bring it back down to Earth. Just like football players have to make adjustments, so do gamblers. Oddsmakers are aware of the deficiencies we exploited last week so now it’s time to reel it back in and play the hits.
Chiefs/Lions under 55.0 (-110)
This pick is a bit of a switcheroo. Last week I picked the Chiefs over and the Lions ATS, both of which won. Perhaps it would make more sense to keep riding the wave and pick the over, but I’m not. The Chiefs have proven themselves to be good for 30+ points a game, but I’m still not sold on the Lions. I thought the Lions matched up well against an injured Eagles team last week but I’m not sure if they can keep up with the Chiefs. If they can hold their own against the Chiefs then I’ll take note but as it stands I just don’t see enough tools on offense to feel comfortable about 55.0 points.
Patriots/Bills over 41.5 (-110)
The New England Patriots are a wagon. This shouldn’t be news to anyone reading this. You know it. I know it. Your senile grandmother that you haven’t visited in over 2 years knows it. They burn, they pillage, (and if you’re Antonio Brown, they also (allegedly) rape) and leave no doubt. This week they take their show on the road to Buffalo, who actually aren’t anything to scoff at. Their competition hasn’t been great but they’re 3-0 and fans have reason to be optimistic. I don’t think it’s likely they win this game, but you imagine if the Patriots are good for at least 30 points and if the Bills are good for at least 10 points, then 41.5 shouldn’t be a tough mark to break.
Seahawks -5.5 (-110)
This is a “do you have any dignity?” game for the Seahawks. They were able to squeeze out close victories over the Bengals and the Steelers in weeks 1 and 2 before losing at home to the Saints last week. The tides of the NFC West are changing with the Rams as the new alphas and the 49er’s turning things around. While the Cardinals offense does look much better than it did last season, they’re still not ready to compete. If the Seahawks want to stay relevant they need to win and they need to win big.
Jaguars ML (+115)
I think I might be addicted to betting on the Jaguars but this is too easy. The Broncos are 0-3 and I take no pleasure in saying this but Joe Flacco stinks. He had a good run but his days a replacement level quarterback in the NFL are done. I suppose I understand why the Broncos are favored since they’re at home and the Jaguars are in a state of flux between Nick Foles injury and the whole Jalen Ramsey situation. But as long as our guy Gardner Minshew is suiting up and the rest of the Jaguars defense is there to play then I’ll take them over the Broncos in Denver, Jacksonville, London, or Timbuktu.
Cowboys -3.0 (+105)
It’s early in the season but this is a huge game. The Cowboys are off to a 3-0 start and it already looks like the NFC East is the Cowboys division to lose. If the Cowboys can pull off the win against a good Saints team in a hostile road environment, that catapults them up the ranks of the NFC as the Team To Beat.
Despite losing Drew Brees to injury in week 2, the Saints were able to pull off a convincing win on the road in Seattle last week. If the Saints win then they’ll be 3-1 and it’ll keep them in a comfortable position while they wait for Drew Brees to return.
This is the Cowboys first real test of the season but I’m picking them to keep on rolling. Dak Prescott is playing out of his mind and he finally has a respectable arsenal of weapons on offense. As long as the secondary can limit the Saints aerial attack then I think they should be able to walk out with a W.