Welcome back boys are girls. Last week we went 3-2 again, bringing the season record to 22-13. Seriously, if you aren’t riding the #Thrill5 yet then what the hell is your problem? That’s a 62.9% winning percentage. We’re making money!
This week’s board has a lot of untouchables. These are games between two bad teams/teams that are inconsistent and difficult to predict, or mismatches with spreads too large for comfort. Finding winners on this week’s board is like finding a virgin in Reno. They exist but good luck finding one. That’s OK though because the willforthrill team scoured the board and found the absolute best can’t lose bets of the week. Let’s roll!
Seahawks/Falcons under 49.5 (-110)*
49.5 points is one of the highest point totals of the week and I’m just not seeing it. The Falcons stink and the evidence is becoming more insurmountable by the week. With Matt Ryan leaving last week’s game with an injury and questionable for this week, I especially don’t see it. And despite a solid 5-2 start, the Seahawks haven’t scored more than 32 points in a game this season. Even if the Seahawks win in a blowout I just don’t know where the points are going to come from.
*Full disclosure: I originally bet on the 53.0 point line and it’s been dropping ever since.
More punts in the game: Bears (+185)
I usually don’t do prop bets like this but I really hate this board so I looked deeper and found a good value pick. The Bears offense it atrocious. Little to no talent and uncreative playcalling to boot. It only makes sense that they punt a lot. But I dug deeper and discovered that not only are the Bears ranked 3rd in the league with 5.5 punts per game, but the Chargers are ranked 30th with 2.9 punts per game. This one seems clear as day to me.
Rams -12.5 (-105)
I’ve made it known in the past that I don’t care for double-digit spreads, but I’m taking this one out of principle. The Bengals are bad. The Dolphins have been getting hyped as one of the worst NFL teams ever, which they deserve, but the Bengals are arguably just as bad. The only difference is that they aren’t being as transparent with fans about their intention to tank. My understanding is that A.J. Green is healthy but choosing not to play this season and nobody even seems to care. Who can blame him for not wanting to play on the Bengals? This Bengals team is bad and even after some bumps in the road I still believe in the Rams. London games can be a bit wonky but the gap in talent between these teams is just too wide. This is my chance for vindication as both a Rams believer and a Bengals naysayer.
49er’s -4.5 (-105)
Every week it’s becoming more evident that the 49er’s might be for real. They’ve had a fairly easy schedule to date but their win against the Rams on the road and the manner in which they dominated the Browns on Monday Night Football is impressive. The Panthers are possibly their biggest test yet, having won past 4 games since Kyle Allen took over at quarterback. The problem is they haven’t actually played anybody in that stretch either. Christian McCaffery is putting together an MVP caliber campaign, but if anybody has the defense to neutralize him it’s the 49er’s. I like them to take care of business this Sunday.
Packers/Chiefs over 47.5 (-115)
Despite Patrick Mahomes injury, not all is lost for the Chiefs. They’re in 1st place and he’s expected to return in 3-6 weeks. As long as the Chiefs can tread water they should be able to make the playoffs. Matt Moore isn’t a quality backup quarterback but he’s a veteran that knows the game and the Chiefs offense is so loaded that all he needs to do is manage the game and get the ball to his targets. Meanwhile, the Packers are in a groove and Aaron Rodgers is in The Zone. It’s disappointing that we aren’t getting the anticipated matchup between the supposed greatest quarterbacks in the world but I think these offenses can generate enough points to cover the over and then some.