Hand up. I want to begin by taking responsibility for my picks last week. I had been on a bit of a heater the past few weeks and started to get cocky. But everything that goes up must come down and last week I went down hard, going 1-4 on my picks. And if the Seahawks make the field goal to win the game in regulation instead of going to overtime and scoring a touchdown, it would’ve been 0-5. The good news is that the NFL season is officially halfway done and we’re still up 27-18.

It might seem counter-intuitive, but this is the point in the season when the NFL becomes trickier to bet on. Most of the contenders have been established, but there’s still a few pretenders hiding in the grass, and even the worst teams have put things together for a win or two. More data just makes things more complicated. But alas, I’m sticking to my guns and making the same picks that got me to this point in the first place.

Lions/Bears under 39.0 (-110)

I don’t usually bet the under for lines lower than 40, but this one feels like the right play. The Chicago Bears offense has been putrid the entire season and the Detroit Lions injury report is longer than a CVS receipt, including Matt Stafford’s first missed start in 136 games. This is going to be some ugly, low-scoring NFC North football.

Bills ML (+120)

Cardinals +4.5 (-105)

The sky fell in week 4 when the Buccaneers beat the Rams on the road in a shootout. Up became down and left became right. The Buccaneers haven’t won a game since, proving they’re exactly who we thought they were. The Cardinals have already matched their win total from last season and they’re 6-3 against the spread this season. This is a very winnable game and I don’t think they have any problem covering the spread in this one.

Panthers/Packers over 48.0 (-110)

The Packers were bad last week. Really bad. They couldn’t pass the ball and they couldn’t run the ball. Those are the two primary methods of gaining yards and scoring points in football and the Packers couldn’t do either against the Chargers. But that was last week. This is this week. I like the Packers to get their mojo back at home against the Panthers defense and I like Christian McCaffery to find holes in the Packers defense. Points points points points points.

Rams -4.5 (-105)

After a rough start, the Steelers have taken advantage of an easy schedule to string together some wins and get to .500. I don’t care. With the 49er’s and Seahawks rolling, this is a game that the Rams NEED to win. They’re fresh off a bye week and have better personnel at just about every position. No excuses not to win this one handily.